Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 19 2026 - 12Z Tue Jul 21 2026
...Additional Canadian wildfire smoke to move south across the
Great Lakes into the Mid-West; air quality issues continue in the
Pacific Northwest...
...Frontal system to drive thunderstorms from the Northern Plains
to the Mid-Atlantic today and tomorrow...
...System over the northeast Gulf may bring heavy rains to coastal
sections of the eastern Gulf...
...Monsoonal thunderstorms continue over the next few days from
the Southwest into the Great Basin...
...Hazardous heat builds from the Northern Plains into the Lower
Mississippi Valley...
The ongoing wildfires across western portions of Ontario will
continue to be a source of wildfire smoke affecting portions of
the CONUS this weekend into next. The latest batch of smoke over
the Great Lakes and Midwest is expected to linger into early next
week, where Air Quality Alerts are in effect from Minneapolis to
Cleveland today. Additional air quality issues will persist over
interior portions of the Pacific Northwest into tomorrow owing to
numerous wildfires in the region.
Meanwhile, a front extending from the Northern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic will serve as a catalyst for thunderstorm development
today. Within this broad area, two separate corridors in the
Northern Plains and lower Mid-Atlantic are being monitored for
flash flooding and severe weather within the strongest cells today
and tomorrow. In the northeast Gulf, a slow moving disturbance
(now with a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation per NHC)
could bring heavy rains and at least isolated flash flooding to
coastal sections of the eastern Gulf over the next few days. In
the West, daily monsoon thunderstorms capable of locally heavy
rainfall and scattered flash flooding will continue across the
Desert Southwest and Great Basin into midweek.
Temperature wise, a dome of high pressure building across the
Nation's midsection will support a bout of much above normal
temperatures today and tomorrow across the Northern Plains, Lower
Missouri Valley, and Lower Mississippi Valley. Widespread Heat
Advisories are in effect in these areas, where heat indices of
100-105 can be expected over the next day. By midweek, the arrival
of a fairly strong cold front should usher in relief to the Plains
and Midwest, where high temperatures should dip below normal.
Asherman
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
