Weather Forecasts

Short Range Forecast

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Valid 12Z Sat May 18 2024 - 12Z Mon May 20 2024

...Unsettled weather with chances for excessive rainfall and
severe thunderstorms continues across the Southeast Saturday...

...Severe weather potential returns to the Central Plains on
Sunday...

...Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and southern
Texas, building into the southern High Plains this weekend...

A wet Saturday is in store for the Southeast as an upper-level
wave and associated surface frontal system focused along the Gulf
Coast lead to a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Rich
moisture along and south of this boundary may lead to some locally
heavy downpours, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level
2/4) in place for portions of southern Alabama, southwestern
Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. An expected round of
widespread, organized thunderstorms over wet soils from storms
already occurring overnight Friday will lead to the threat of some
scattered instances of flash flooding. Some storms will also carry
the threat for damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two, with
a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) extending eastward
further into southern Georgia and northern Florida. Moderate to
locally heavy rainfall will be possible elsewhere to the north of
the boundary, with a few additional isolated instances of flash
flooding possible. Additional showers will expand northward into
the Mid-Atlantic, and onshore flow ahead of a system over the
Atlantic will bring showers to New England as well, but these
should remain lighter than those over the Southeast. Storm chances
will taper off from west to east for much of the Southeast
overnight Saturday and into early Sunday as the northern part of
the frontal system pushes eastward into the Atlantic. A trailing
cold front will keep storms in the forecast for Florida Sunday.

Some light showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of another
system moving through the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes region Saturday, though these should generally
remain light. Then, on Sunday, additional upper-level energies
approaching from the West will bring a renewed chance of storms
more broadly across the Northern/Central Plains and into the
Midwest on Sunday. Moist southerly return flow following a warm
front lifting into the Northern Plains/Midwest and ahead of a
dryline over the High Plains will lead to sufficient instability
for some robust thunderstorm development. The Storm Prediction
Center has introduced an Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level
3/5) for portions of the Central Plains for the threat of very
large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Some locally
heavy rainfall will also be possible, particularly from the
Central Plains northeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Some storms are also expected in the Northern Rockies as these
upper-level energies pass overhead, with some snow possible into
higher mountain elevations.

Intense Summer-like heat will continue over portions of South
Florida and southern Texas this weekend, and expand in coverage
into portions of the southern High Plains. Forecast highs will be
in the 90s for Florida with mid-90s to mid-100s in Texas,
potentially record-tying/breaking levels. When combined with the
humidity, heat indices will soar to near 110 in South Florida,
with Heat Advisories in place for Saturday. While not quite as
hot, temperatures will still be well above average more broadly
across much of the country this weekend, particularly from the
Central Plains into the Midwest where highs in the 80s to near 90
will be common. Highs will also be above average for portions of
the West, with 70s and 80s in the Great Basin/interior California
and 90s to low 100s in the Desert Southeast. More temperate, below
average conditions are expected along much of the East Coast, with
50s and 60s in New England and 60s and 70s into the
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. The Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies
will also be cooler, with highs in the 50s and 60s expected here
as well. Variable temperatures are forecast for the Southeast due
to ongoing storms, with mainly 80s expected.