Moderate Special Weather Statement | Effective 07/20/2026 04:34

Corrected typos and updated discussion. ...A DEVELOPING MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND CHOPPY SEAS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... A developing monsoon pattern is producing fresh west-southwesterlies and a surge of numerous to widespread locally heavy showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by strong to near-gale gusts. There is some indication that a monsoon disturbance may gradually form to the north-northeast, which could lead to an intensified monsoon surge across Palau and Yap. Model guidance suggests 3 to 5 inches through the middle of the week, and an additional 2 to 4 inches through the latter half of the week, totaling 6 to 9 inches by the weekend. If these showers develop as expected, soils will become saturated enough to pose a risk for mudslides toward the end of the week. At this time, the risk remains low. As the monsoon pattern continues to develop, winds and seas will increase, but are expected to remain below conditions hazardous to small craft. As a tropical disturbance embedded within the monsoon trough attempts to consolidate, it will move north and carry the bulk of the convective monsoon with it, easing the showers and winds near Palau and Yap as early as Saturday. For more information, residents and mariners should monitor the latest forecasts for the region at weather.gov/gum/PublicForecasts and any information shared by WSO Palau and WSO Yap for their local regions.