Moderate Special Weather Statement | Effective 07/19/2026 01:24

A developing monsoon pattern is producing fresh west- southwesterlies and a surge of numerous to widespread locally heavy showers and thunderstorms, accompanied by strong to near-gale gusts. There is some indication that a monsoon disturbance may gradually form to the north-northeast, which could lead to an intensified monsoon surge across Palau and Yap. Model trends indicate 3 to 5 inches of rainfall through midweek. There is an estimated 2 to 4 inches of additional rainfall in the latter half of the week, with higher amounts possible depending on when the monsoon trough begins to shift northward. Prolonged periods of heavy downpours may produce minor flooding at times. Choppy seas from localized wind waves and a developing westerly swell are already creating challenging conditions for small craft. With the monsoon pattern gradually strengthening over the next few days, sustained winds look to exceed hazardous levels of 22 kt around Tuesday night. For more information, residents and mariners should monitor the latest forecasts for the region at weather.gov/gum/PublicForecasts and any information shared by WSO Palau and WSO Yap for their local regions.